Risk & Decisions

Overview

The Risk & Decisions group holds everything that answers two questions: what could go wrong, and what are we doing about it? and which option did we choose, and why? It has four pages in the navigation rail:

All four work on ordinary model entities. A risk is a Risk entity, a mitigation is any Action or Task the risk is mitigated by, a trade study is an Artifact labeled Trade Study, its criteria are Measures labeled Criteria, and the choice is recorded on a Decision. Everything you do here is traceable from the rest of the model and every edit is one undo step (⌘Z).

Concepts

The project risk scale

Each project has one risk scale, set with Edit Risk Matrix…. It defines:

• Likelihood rows (1–6) and consequence columns (1–6). Each row and column has a name, a range in percent (From %, To %) and an optional definition.
• Risk levels, listed from lowest to highest, each with a name and a color (for example Low, Moderate, High).
• The level of each cell of the matrix.

A risk's Probability and Consequence attributes are percentages from 0 to 100. Each value falls into the row or column whose range contains it, and the cell gives the risk its level. The same scale drives the Risk Register, every Risk Diagram, the Risk Matrix dashboard chart and every Risk Burn-Down, so the colors and levels always agree.

Two presets are built in:

In the Default 5 × 5 preset a cell is High when probability index × consequence index is 15 or more, or when the consequence is in the highest column and the probability in row 3 or above; Moderate when the product is 5 or more; otherwise Low. Any edit to a preset changes the Preset box to Custom.

Exposure is Probability × Consequence / 100. It appears in exports and breaks ties when you sort by Level.

Risk attributes

Besides Name, Number and Description, a Risk has these attributes:

Relationships that matter here: mitigated by (the actions or tasks that reduce the risk), caused by / causes (what the risk comes from), and resolves. A Risk Diagram collects the risks that its root entity causes, is caused by, mitigates or resolves.

Burn-down

A Risk Burn-Down is a chart on one Risk. It plots the risk's level over time as a step line:

• Actual: dated snapshots of Probability and Consequence, recorded as the risk is reassessed.
• Planned: the step-down expected when each mitigation completes. A mitigation's completion date comes from the Mitigation Plan, or, if none is set there, from the mitigation's Start plus Duration.

Trade studies and decisions

A trade study compares the alternatives of a Decision against weighted criteria:

• Alternatives are the entities the Decision has an alternative relationship to. They can be Assets, Actions, Artifacts, Resources, Statements or Requirements. + New creates an Asset.
• Criteria are Measures labeled Criteria that specify the study. Each has a Weight, an Improvement Direction (higher or lower is better), Units and a Scoring Method.
• Each raw value becomes a score from 0 to 10. The weighted score of an alternative is the sum of its scores times the normalized weights (weights are divided by their total so they sum to 1). A missing value counts as 0.

Scoring methods:

Values can carry units: 450 g in a criterion whose Units are kg is converted to 0.45.

A Decision has Status (Open, In Analysis, Decided, Deferred, Superseded), Justification, Assumptions, Decision Date and Decided By. The chosen alternative is marked on its alternative relationship (the Choice attribute).

How to use it

When and why

Risk management runs through the whole lifecycle. Start the register at the concept stage, as soon as requirements and a first architecture exist, and review it at every milestone (SRR, PDR, CDR). Use it to answer: which risks threaten the mission, who owns each, how will we handle it, and is it going down on schedule?

Trade studies belong where the design branches: after the requirements and measures of effectiveness are known and before the architecture is committed. They answer: which alternative best meets the weighted needs, and would a reasonable change in priorities change the answer? Record the result on a Decision so reviewers can trace the choice back to requirements, criteria and scores.

Set up the risk scale

1. Open Risk & Decisions → Risk Register and click Edit Risk Matrix… in the top bar.
2. Choose a Preset: Default 5 × 5 or MIL-STD-882E (5 × 4). To use your program's own matrix, set Likelihood rows (1–6) and Consequence columns (1–6) instead.
3. Under Likelihood (Probability attribute, highest first) and Consequence (Consequence attribute, lowest first), adjust each Name, From %, To % and Definition.
4. Under Risk Levels, rename levels, pick colors, remove a level with × or add one with + Add Level. List levels from lowest to highest.
5. Under Level of Each Cell, click a cell to cycle it through the levels.
6. Click Apply. The toast Risk matrix updated confirms it; every risk view in the project now uses the new scale. Press ⌘Z to undo.

Set the scale before rating many risks. Changing it later re-bins every risk, which is correct but can surprise reviewers who remember the old colors.

Record and rate a risk

1. Click + New Risk in the Risk Register top bar. Enter a name (and optionally a number and description) and create it. The new risk is selected and shown in the inspector.
2. In the inspector, set Probability and Consequence (0–100), Status, Owner, Handling Strategy, Trigger and Need-by Date. The register row shows the level as soon as both percentages are set, for example High (4×5).
3. Relate the risk to what causes it (caused by, for example the subsystem), so it appears on that entity's Risk Diagram.

To draft risks with AI instead, select an entity (for example a subsystem) and choose ✦ AI ▾ → Generate Risks… (see AI-assisted risks).

Plan the mitigation

1. Create the actions or tasks that reduce the risk (for example on a Kanban board; see Plan & Deliver), with Start and Duration.
2. Add each one to the risk's mitigated by relationship in the inspector. The register's Mitigations column lists them.
3. Set Residual Probability and Residual Consequence: the rating you expect when handling is complete. The register shows the Residual Level next to the current one.
4. For a burn-down, open Plan & Deliver → Charts, choose Create Risk Burn-Down from the create menu, select Specify an Existing Risk, pick the risk and click Create. The register now shows Burn-down beside the risk's name.
5. In the burn-down, click Mitigation Plan…. For each mitigation, set Completes and Level After, then Apply. The planned line steps down at those dates. + Relate Mitigation… adds another mitigated by entity from the same dialog.

Review the register

1. Sort by Level (the default, highest first) to bring the worst risks to the top.
2. Click a level chip, for example High (2), to show only that level; click it again to clear it. Use Any status, Any handling and Search risks to narrow further.
3. Edit Status, Owner and Handling directly in the table.
4. After each review, reassess Probability and Consequence, then open the burn-down and click Record Snapshot. The actual line gets a new step at today's date.
5. Download the register for the review package with Export ▾ → Excel (XLSX) or CSV.

Run a trade study and record the decision

1. Open Risk & Decisions → Trade Studies and click + New Trade Study. Enter a Name, then choose an existing Decision or keep New Decision and enter a New Decision name. Click Create. A new Decision starts with Status In Analysis.
2. Add alternatives in the Alternatives bar: + New creates an Asset; + Existing… picks any entity.
3. Add criteria on the Decision Matrix tab: + Criterion, + Existing Measure…, or ✦ AI ▾ → Suggest Criteria from Requirements and MOEs…. For each criterion set Weight, Better (Higher or Lower), Units and the scoring method (click the Scoring button).
4. Enter a raw value in each cell, or click Pull Values from Model to read Characteristics of each alternative that have the criterion's name. The small number next to each value is its 0–10 score; the Weighted score (0-10) row and the Ranking chart update as you type.
5. Optionally open the Pugh Matrix tab, choose the Datum and click Fill from Scores, or click cells to set +, 0 or −.
6. Open the Sensitivity tab. Read the Weight Sweep for each criterion, the Tornado and the Rank Reversal Points table. Robust means no change of that weight alone changes the leader.
7. Click Record Decision…. Choose the Selected alternative, edit the Rationale (or click the draft button to have AI draft it), check Date and Decided by, and click Record Decision. The toast Decision recorded confirms it.
8. Download the study with Export ▾ → Excel Workbook (.xlsx) or Word Summary (.docx).

Worked example: the CubeSat EO-1 demo

Create the demo project (Manage Projects → Project Files ▾ → Create Demo Project), then:

Risk register. The demo uses the Default 5 × 5 scale and holds seven risks, RK-1 to RK-7. Sorted by Level, RK-1 Reaction Wheel Failure (P 45%, C 85%) and RK-3 Launch Slip (P 65%, C 70%) are High; the other five are Moderate. RK-1 is owned by the ADCS Lead, handled by Mitigate, status Mitigating, and mitigated by KB.1 Run Reaction Wheel Life Test and KB.10 Diagnose Wheel Friction. Its residual rating (20%, 60%) is Moderate. RK-7 Optical Misalignment in Thermal Cycling is Accepted, so its residual level equals its current level.

1. Click High (2) to list the two high risks.
2. Select RK-3 and read its Trigger: The rideshare provider reports a manifest change or a primary payload delay.
3. Open Burn-down beside RK-2 Battery Capacity Fade. The actual line has four snapshots from January to October 2026 (probability 70% → 45%). The Mitigation Plan steps the risk to Moderate when KB.2 Characterize Battery Cell Fade completes on 16 October 2026 and to Low when KB.11 Qualify Second Battery Cell Lot completes on 29 January 2027.
4. Open Risk & Decisions → Risk Diagrams and the EO-1 Spacecraft diagram to see the seven risks on the matrix, each in its cell.

Trade study. Open Trade Studies → TR-1 Downlink Band Selection. It supports DEC-1 Select Payload Downlink Band and compares the S-band, X-band and Ka-band transmitters on six criteria: Data Rate (weight 3, Linear 8 → 60 Mbps), Mass (1, lower is better), Power Draw (2, lower), Ground Station Availability (3, Direct 1-10), Licensing Schedule (2, Direct 1-10) and Recurring Cost (2, lower).

1. On the Decision Matrix, the weighted scores are S-band 7.24, X-band 6.13 and Ka-band 3.38. Mass, Power Draw and Data Rate were pulled from each transmitter's Characteristics.
2. On Sensitivity, choose Data Rate in the Weight Sweep. Its normalized weight is 0.231; X-band overtakes S-band at 0.328 and Ka-band leads above 0.683. Every other criterion is Robust.
3. The Pugh Matrix uses S-band as datum: X-band and Ka-band are better only on Data Rate.
4. The decision is recorded: S-band, 18 June 2026, with a rationale that names the sensitivity to the data rate weight. Reopen would clear it and set DEC-1 back to In Analysis.

Tips and good practice

• Write risks as condition → consequence ("Cells lose capacity faster than the vendor data shows"), and put the effect in Consequence Description.
• Give every risk an Owner and a Need-by Date. A risk without an owner is not managed.
• Use Handling Strategy honestly: Accept and Watch risks need no mitigations, but they still need a trigger.
• Set residual values before mitigations start. The gap between current and residual level is what the mitigation plan is buying.
• Record a burn-down snapshot at each review, not each edit, so the actual line shows the program's assessments.
• In trade studies, set weights from the requirements and stakeholders before entering values, and say so in the rationale. Check the Sensitivity tab before recording: a reversal close to the current weight (the Distance pill turns amber below 0.1) means the decision depends on a judgment call.
• Use Linear with explicit worst and best values for measured criteria. Leaving them blank scales to the entered values, so adding an alternative can change every score.

Common mistakes

• A risk shows "—" as its level. Probability or Consequence is empty. Set both; the register lists such risks under Not rated.
• A risk is missing from a Risk Diagram. The diagram shows only risks related to its root (causes, caused by, mitigates, resolves) down to the chosen level depth, minus hidden labels. Relate the risk to the root, or raise Level.
• Record Snapshot fails with The risk has no Probability or Consequence. Set both, then record a snapshot. Set both values first.
• Record Decision… is disabled. The study has no Decision or no alternatives. Relate the study to a Decision with enables, then add alternatives.
• Pull Values from Model finds nothing. The Characteristic must have exactly the criterion's name (case does not matter) and be related to the alternative.

How it connects

• Requirements and measures feed the trade study criteria (Suggest Criteria from Requirements and MOEs… reads requirements and Measures labeled MOE, MOP, KPP or TPM). Trace the Decision from the requirement it answers (traced from), as the demo does for DEC-1.
• Architecture: alternatives are usually Assets; the chosen one becomes part of the design. Their Characteristics (mass, power) come from the budgets.
• Plan & Deliver: mitigations are Tasks on a Kanban board or Gantt chart, and the burn-down uses their dates. See Plan & Deliver.
• Verification: failed tests often raise or confirm risks; RK-1's trigger is a second pointing test failure.
• Home and the rail: the Risk & Decisions badge and the Home card High risks count risks at the highest level.
• Frameworks: UAF Rk-Pm views open a Risk Diagram or a risk burn-down. See Frameworks.

Risk Register

Risk & Decisions → Risk Register lists every Risk in the project.

Top bar

Filter bar

• Level chips, one per risk level from highest to lowest, each with its count, plus Not rated (n) when some risks have no level. Click to filter; click again to clear.
• The count, for example 7 risks. Child risks that only hold old burn-down points are not listed; the count then adds n burn-down review points not listed.
• Any status and Any handling filter by Status and Handling Strategy.
• Search risks matches number, name, owner, trigger and description.

Columns

ID, Risk, Status, Owner, Handling, P %, C %, Level and Mitigations always show. The other columns are hidden when no risk has a value in them. Exports always include every column plus Exposure (P×C/100), Closure Rationale and Labels. Files are named Risk_Register.xlsx and Risk_Register.csv.

Click a column header to sort; click again to reverse. Level and percentage columns sort highest first.

Selection and inspector

Click a row (or focus it and press Enter or Space) to show the risk in the inspector, where every attribute, relationship and comment can be edited. ↑ and ↓ move between rows. Esc clears the selection.

Empty states

• This project has no risks. — Use + New Risk, or add risks on a Risk Diagram.
• No risk matches the filters. — Clear a filter to show every risk.

Edit Risk Matrix

Opens from the Risk Register, a Risk Diagram (toolbar and ⚙ settings) and a Risk Burn-Down.

Apply saves the scale as one undo step. Cancel discards changes.

A value exactly on a boundary belongs to the upper range (20% is in the 20–40 row), except 100%, which is in the top range. Values outside every range go to the first or last row or column.

Risk Diagrams

Risk & Decisions → Risk Diagrams lists the Risk Diagrams of the project; open one, or create one from Diagrams with a root entity. The diagram draws the project risk matrix with each related risk in its cell and a table of the risks below it.

• Toolbar: Level (depth of the root's decomposition to collect risks from, default 3), + New Risk, Relate Existing Risk…, ✦ Generate Risks, Edit Risk Matrix…, Filter by Label ▾ (risks with a selected label are hidden; the button then reads Labels (n hidden) ▾) and Risk Register.
• Click a cell to select it; the side panel lists Risks (n) in that cell and offers + New Risk Here (a risk named New Risk with the cell's midpoint percentages) and ✦ Generate Risks for that cell. + New Risk on the toolbar starts at 50% and 50%.
• ⚙ settings: Edit Risk Matrix… and Show names in cells / Show numbers in cells.
• With a Risk as root, the diagram shows that risk, its decomposition and the risks related to them.

The diagram editor itself (zoom, annotations, export) is described in the diagram reference; see Risk Diagram.

Risk Burn-Down

A Risk Burn-Down is a chart in Plan & Deliver → Charts whose root is a Risk. It opens from Burn-down in the register or from the chart gallery.

Toolbar

The chart editor's common controls apply: ‹ All Charts, ▲ Parent, Open ▾ and Export ▾ (Transparent Image (PNG), Opaque Image (PNG), Vector Image (SVG), Microsoft Word (DOCX), Web Page (HTML), Data (CSV)). The CSV has the columns Series, Date, Probability, Consequence, Exposure, Level and Note, with one row per actual snapshot and per planned step.

Below the chart: Current level: …, Residual (target) level: …, the snapshot count, and how many snapshots are not plotted because they lack a probability or consequence. Point at a point for its date, level, percentages, exposure and note.

If the risk still has child risks that each hold one dated point (an older way of recording burn-downs), a banner offers Convert…, which moves them into snapshots and deletes those child risks as one undo step (Convert Snapshot Risks dialog, then Convert).

Trade Studies

Trade study list

Risk & Decisions → Trade Studies lists every study with Trade Study, Decision, Alternatives, Criteria, Leader (0-10) and Status (the Decision's status, or Selected: … once recorded). + New Trade Study is in the top bar.

You can also start a study from a Decision: Open ▾ on the Decision lists Trade Study: <name> for each existing study, or New Trade Study… when it has none. Open ▾ on a study offers Open Trade Study.

Study page

The header shows the editable study name, the Decision it supports (for DEC-1 …) with its status pill, or No Decision. When a decision is recorded, a card shows Decided: <alternative>, the date, the decider, the rationale and Reopen.

Top bar: All Studies, Export ▾ (Excel Workbook (.xlsx), Word Summary (.docx)) and Record Decision…. ✦ AI ▾ adds Suggest Criteria from Requirements and MOEs… and Draft Decision Rationale….

Alternatives bar: a colored chip per alternative (the color is used in every chart), × to remove it from the Decision (the entity is kept), + New and + Existing….

Decision Matrix tab

The footer row Weighted score (0-10) shows each alternative's total and rank (#1, #2, …). Card buttons: + Criterion, + Existing Measure…, Pull Values from Model. The Ranking card is a bar chart of the weighted scores, leader first.

Scoring Method dialog: Method (Direct 1-10, Direct 1-5, Linear, Thresholds). Linear shows Worst value: score 0 and Best value: score 10. Thresholds shows Thresholds (value:score, score 0-10). Save applies.

Pugh Matrix tab

Choose the Datum; its column shows D. Click a cell to cycle 0, +, − (better, same, worse than the datum). Footer rows: Σ +, Σ −, Σ 0, Net and Weighted net (using the normalized weights; the best positive weighted net is bold). Fill from Scores sets every cell by comparing each alternative's score with the datum's, criterion by criterion. Needs at least two alternatives and one criterion.

Sensitivity tab

• Weight Sweep: choose a criterion. The chart shows each alternative's weighted score as that criterion's normalized weight goes from 0 to 1, with the other weights keeping their ratios. Shaded bands show the leader at each weight, a vertical line marks the current weight (now 0.231), and dots mark rank reversals. The sentence below names the nearest reversal, or No rank reversal: … leads at every weight of ….
• Tornado: choose Weight change ±10%, ±25%, ±50% (default) or ±100%. Each pair of bars shows the leader's margin over the next alternative with that weight lowered (upper bar) and raised (lower bar). Bars that cross zero mark a leader change. Rows are sorted by the size of the effect.
• Rank Reversal Points: per criterion, Current weight, Reversal at weight → new leader and Distance (how far the weight must move; Robust when it never reverses).

Needs at least two alternatives and one criterion.

Record Decision

Record Decision · <Decision> offers:

• Selected alternative: radio buttons in rank order with each score. The leader (or the earlier choice) is preselected.
• Rationale (saved as the Decision's Justification): prefilled with the Decision's current Justification, or an automatic summary of the scores and rank reversals, which follows your alternative choice until you edit it. The button next to the label drafts it with AI.
• Date and Decided by (your name).

Record Decision sets the Choice on the selected alternative's relationship, the Decision's Justification, Decision Date, Decided By and Status = Decided, as one undo step. Reopen clears the choice and sets the status back to In Analysis.

Exports

• Excel Workbook (.xlsx): sheets Decision Matrix (criteria, weights, normalized weights, direction, units, scoring, raw values and scores), Results (rank, alternative, weighted score, missing values, selected), Pugh and Sensitivity (reversals, then the tornado table).
• Word Summary (.docx): title, decision, description, alternatives, criteria, decision matrix (Cells show the raw value and, in parentheses, its score from 0 to 10.), ranking, Pugh matrix with datum, sensitivity and tornado tables, and the recorded decision with its rationale.

Files are named after the study.

Decisions

Risk & Decisions → Decisions opens the Database with the query class:Decision. Each Decision shows its status, date and decider; open one to edit its Justification and Assumptions, see its alternatives (with the Choice marked) and the study that enables it. See Database.

AI-assisted risks

✦ AI ▾ → Generate Risks… (top bar, on an entity or Risk Diagram; also ✦ Generate Risks on the Risk Diagram toolbar and Generate Risks with AI… in ⌘K) works in two previewed steps:

1. Generate Risks — pick up to 3: six candidate risk names for the entity. Tick up to three (Pick up to 3 risks. appears if you tick more), then Generate Details.
2. Verify Risks: each risk with an editable number, name, category (Cost, Schedule, Technical), Description, Consequence Description, Consequence % and Probability %. Untick any you do not want and click Create Risks.

The risks are created with Status Open, related to the entity, labeled with the category, as one undo step. Toast: Created n risks. Candidates that look like they carry untrusted content (for example a web address) start unticked. If the provider returns nothing: <provider> did not suggest any risks.

Trade studies have two AI tools, both previewed:

• Suggest Criteria from Requirements and MOEs… proposes 4–8 criteria from the project's requirements and its Measures labeled MOE, MOP, KPP or TPM. The Suggested Criteria dialog lists Criterion, Weight, Better, Units, Scoring and Source; tick the ones to keep and click Add Selected (Added n criteria).
• Draft Decision Rationale… opens Record Decision and drafts a 3–6 sentence rationale into the Rationale box (Draft inserted. Review it before you record.). Nothing is saved until you click Record Decision.

See AI for keys, providers and what is sent.

Keyboard shortcuts

Messages

Limits

• Risk matrix: 1–6 likelihood rows and 1–6 consequence columns; at least two levels.
• Probability, Consequence and their residual values: 0–100.
• Generate Risks: six candidates, up to three detailed per run.
• Suggest Criteria: reads up to 80 requirements and 40 measures; proposes up to 16 criteria.
• Pugh matrix and sensitivity: at least two alternatives and one criterion.
• Tornado weight change: ±10%, ±25%, ±50% or ±100%.
• Weights below zero count as zero; if every weight is zero, all criteria weigh the same.

Related pages

• Plan & Deliver — Kanban boards and Gantt charts for mitigation tasks; the Charts page.
• Budgets & TPMs — Characteristics that trade studies pull values from.
• Verification — test results that raise or retire risks.
• Frameworks — UAF risk views.
• AI — AI keys and what is sent.
• Help: Risk Register, Run a Risk Register with the MIL-STD-882E Scale, Trade Studies, Run a Trade Study and Record the Decision, Risk Diagram.